August 2009: Homegrown CBHD discs outsell Blu-ray by 3-1 margin in China, getting 30 percent of the China market after only a few months on the market. The first CBHD players and discs were put on sale in late April/early May of 2009. China's video sell by type: DVD = 60% of total market share CBHD = 30% BlueRay= 10% Each CBHD disc hold about 30GB of data. The homegrown format, with some technology licensed from the defunct HD DVD players at a bargain.The discs are cheap, about US$7.40/dics compare to Blu-Ray discs which cost US$29.60/disc. If penetration rises as rapidly as it has so far, nearly the whole Chinese market may transition in a matter of a year or two. Indeed, if the CBHD scaleup is so rapid, and costs so low, why not take the new format beyond China's shores? The engineer interviewed at the CBHD factory believes there's a strong market for the player in other emerging countries, and that the new format could come to dominate HD sales in other parts of the world, and possibly even in western strongholds where Blu-Ray is currently the only physical HD format in town. If this happens, it would represent a major victory for China, which has, in the past, mostly licensed technology from other countries. Building on its success with Super Video CD (SVCD) in the domestic Chinese market, the Chinese manufacturing machine would have begun to flex its muscle with Chinese IP, abroad.
i'd like to see a quality comparison and a feasibility report for whether this could take off in north america. At 7 bucks a disc i'd love this in comparison to BD... I only own 2 bluray movies as it stands just because of the cost factor
Quality comparisons are meaningless when you're going to leagues above the usual market with either choice. If this was a point scale comparison, it would be to say that 97% versus 99% is meaningless if you're starting from 10% to begin with. That is, either blu ray or HD DVD (which I had personally preferred before most of the powers that be opted out) or one of its derived techs, will still be dramatically better than your average DVD. That being the case, then it becomes consumer preference and consumers usually go with the cheaper system. Sony learned this the hard way years ago with its Betamax video system. Betamax was much better; sharper, better color quality, etc. So how come VHS won out? Consumer preference. Consumers started from nothing to having to choose a video system, and in that case, either was a lot better than what the consumer originally had. Hence, consumers will almost always go with the cheaper system. VHS beat Betamax by a wide margin. The only ones who chose to go with Sony were the pros, that is, news and television producers, to which money was not an issue. That being the case, since CBHD's HD DVD derived tech is functionally almost as good as blu ray, but going to be a lot cheaper, by almost a ridiculous one quarter of the price for media, it is almost guaranteed to eventually beat blu ray to death. The only way that blu ray can stop it is if it came down to an equal price immediately. Then it would take the cost factor entirely out of the equation. If all things were equal consumers have been shown to usually go with the better quality. Hence, in the final analysis, CBHDs are going to win out by a large margin simply from an analysis of traditional consumer purchasing behavior. This is especially so in a country like the PRC, where cheaper usually wins by a large margin to begin with. It may not be so in first tier cities like Shanghai where people have money. But in the bulk of China, which is decidedly still rather third world in terms of consumer behaviors, the price factor is probably going to be the ONLY factor. Further, the fact that CBHDs can integrate into regular DVD production lines with little production line retooling means that there is almost nothing to stand in its way, except perhaps the political. CBHD's codecs IIRC are owned by the PRC government. Depending on who they're willing to license the technology to, they could try to retain too much control and stifle their own market expansion.
chinese don't care bout quality much, they are both probably 1080p, vcd and rm won out and this is probably going to be standard over there, i don't see blu ray picking up at 20 bux a disc and more expensive player
but the thing is also movie production companies choose which format they support(although i think that would depend on consumer preference also) like hd dvd failed when warner chose blu ray i think. sony pictures is a huge movie company plus the ps3 supports the blu ray format and that console is getting a price drop. i dunno if people would actually want to adopt a new cheaper physical form of media right now because digital downloads are so hot nowadays.
I agree that there are some differences with the argument that I had put forth (Betamax vs VHS) with the currently video mature market, but the fundamental consumer pressures remain more or less the same. I also agree that Sony is in a unique position relative to its console business and the amount of market pressure that the game industry obviously bears (if a Chinese company can reverse engineer a PS3 that plays all discs then Sony would be toast, LOL...) However, the consumer here still has the choice. If he has a player that plays both Blu ray and CBHD, then he won't care what his store bought movies are printed on. I know when I bought a DVD player years ago, I also made sure that the thing was enabled with other codecs to play everthing else (whatever codecs at the time). So the biggest issue here is getting a player that has the CBHD codecs (see more below). Digital downloads notwithstanding, storage media is going to be a big issue for consumers, especially in China. The old photo album is dead, and is being replaced by electronic storage media. Hence, the more "pages" you can cram onto a disc per consumer Yuan spent, the hotter a commodity it would become. Yes it is, and THAT is its weakest link right now. The PRC government has traditionally given western companies many things besides business to worry about that its reputation may the greatest threat to CBHD technology. Westerners may do business with China but there is still a lack of trust that the Chinese government will be a honest business partner. Since the PRC government effectively owns the codecs the CBHD requires to play, the only people who can manufacture players for such discs will have to be authorized by the PRC. That fact alone is a huge marketing barrier for world wide acceptance of CBHD. If the PRC government was savvy they should just make the codecs public domain. The tech would then grow in leaps and bounds as well as fly off the shelves. What we're talking about here is not just Chinese consumers (which still needs a generation or two to fully mature), but the world market. People generally fail to recognize the fact that over the last fifty years of business, the trail of "poor boy done good" generally favors those who has cheap labor as well as goverments that allow for a stable business environment to foster. This was so first with Japan, then Hong Kong, Taiwan, and the ROK. Now it's China's turn. The one thing that the PRC can do best to not upset the business boat is to just get out of the way. The PRC simply needs to look at countries like Russia and Myanmar to realize what kills business.
I see people still believe content rules the media...hmmmm not always, true. in this case, at least, not a alot of video or movies are availble in CBHD format as of now in China, yet people are grabbing the players of the shelf faster then the manufactur made them.
