As if Things Weren't Bad Enough, Russian Professor Predicts End of U.S.

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Dan 8-D

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As if Things Weren't Bad Enough, Russian Professor Predicts End of U.S.
In Moscow, Igor Panarin's Forecasts Are All the Rage; America 'Disintegrates' in 2010

DECEMBER 29, 2008

By ANDREW OSBORN

MOSCOW -- For a decade, Russian academic Igor Panarin has been predicting the U.S. will fall apart in 2010. For most of that time, he admits, few took his argument -- that an economic and moral collapse will trigger a civil war and the eventual breakup of the U.S. -- very seriously. Now he's found an eager audience: Russian state media.

In recent weeks, he's been interviewed as much as twice a day about his predictions. "It's a record," says Prof. Panarin. "But I think the attention is going to grow even stronger."

Prof. Panarin, 50 years old, is not a fringe figure. A former KGB analyst, he is dean of the Russian Foreign Ministry's academy for future diplomats. He is invited to Kremlin receptions, lectures students, publishes books, and appears in the media as an expert on U.S.-Russia relations.

But it's his bleak forecast for the U.S. that is music to the ears of the Kremlin, which in recent years has blamed Washington for everything from instability in the Middle East to the global financial crisis. Mr. Panarin's views also fit neatly with the Kremlin's narrative that Russia is returning to its rightful place on the world stage after the weakness of the 1990s, when many feared that the country would go economically and politically bankrupt and break into separate territories.

A polite and cheerful man with a buzz cut, Mr. Panarin insists he does not dislike Americans. But he warns that the outlook for them is dire.

"There's a 55-45% chance right now that disintegration will occur," he says. "One could rejoice in that process," he adds, poker-faced. "But if we're talking reasonably, it's not the best scenario -- for Russia." Though Russia would become more powerful on the global stage, he says, its economy would suffer because it currently depends heavily on the dollar and on trade with the U.S.

Mr. Panarin posits, in brief, that mass immigration, economic decline, and moral degradation will trigger a civil war next fall and the collapse of the dollar. Around the end of June 2010, or early July, he says, the U.S. will break into six pieces -- with Alaska reverting to Russian control.

In addition to increasing coverage in state media, which are tightly controlled by the Kremlin, Mr. Panarin's ideas are now being widely discussed among local experts. He presented his theory at a recent roundtable discussion at the Foreign Ministry. The country's top international relations school has hosted him as a keynote speaker. During an appearance on the state TV channel Rossiya, the station cut between his comments and TV footage of lines at soup kitchens and crowds of homeless people in the U.S. The professor has also been featured on the Kremlin's English-language propaganda channel, Russia Today.

Mr. Panarin's apocalyptic vision "reflects a very pronounced degree of anti-Americanism in Russia today," says Vladimir Pozner, a prominent TV journalist in Russia. "It's much stronger than it was in the Soviet Union."

Mr. Pozner and other Russian commentators and experts on the U.S. dismiss Mr. Panarin's predictions. "Crazy ideas are not usually discussed by serious people," says Sergei Rogov, director of the government-run Institute for U.S. and Canadian Studies, who thinks Mr. Panarin's theories don't hold water.

Mr. Panarin's résumé includes many years in the Soviet KGB, an experience shared by other top Russian officials. His office, in downtown Moscow, shows his national pride, with pennants on the wall bearing the emblem of the FSB, the KGB's successor agency. It is also full of statuettes of eagles; a double-headed eagle was the symbol of czarist Russia.

The professor says he began his career in the KGB in 1976. In post-Soviet Russia, he got a doctorate in political science, studied U.S. economics, and worked for FAPSI, then the Russian equivalent of the U.S. National Security Agency. He says he did strategy forecasts for then-President Boris Yeltsin, adding that the details are "classified."

In September 1998, he attended a conference in Linz, Austria, devoted to information warfare, the use of data to get an edge over a rival. It was there, in front of 400 fellow delegates, that he first presented his theory about the collapse of the U.S. in 2010.

"When I pushed the button on my computer and the map of the United States disintegrated, hundreds of people cried out in surprise," he remembers. He says most in the audience were skeptical. "They didn't believe me."

At the end of the presentation, he says many delegates asked him to autograph copies of the map showing a dismembered U.S.

He based the forecast on classified data supplied to him by FAPSI analysts, he says. He predicts that economic, financial and demographic trends will provoke a political and social crisis in the U.S. When the going gets tough, he says, wealthier states will withhold funds from the federal government and effectively secede from the union. Social unrest up to and including a civil war will follow. The U.S. will then split along ethnic lines, and foreign powers will move in.

California will form the nucleus of what he calls "The Californian Republic," and will be part of China or under Chinese influence. Texas will be the heart of "The Texas Republic," a cluster of states that will go to Mexico or fall under Mexican influence. Washington, D.C., and New York will be part of an "Atlantic America" that may join the European Union. Canada will grab a group of Northern states Prof. Panarin calls "The Central North American Republic." Hawaii, he suggests, will be a protectorate of Japan or China, and Alaska will be subsumed into Russia.

"It would be reasonable for Russia to lay claim to Alaska; it was part of the Russian Empire for a long time." A framed satellite image of the Bering Strait that separates Alaska from Russia like a thread hangs from his office wall. "It's not there for no reason," he says with a sly grin.

Interest in his forecast revived this fall when he published an article in Izvestia, one of Russia's biggest national dailies. In it, he reiterated his theory, called U.S. foreign debt "a pyramid scheme," and predicted China and Russia would usurp Washington's role as a global financial regulator.

Americans hope President-elect Barack Obama "can work miracles," he wrote. "But when spring comes, it will be clear that there are no miracles."

The article prompted a question about the White House's reaction to Prof. Panarin's forecast at a December news conference. "I'll have to decline to comment," spokeswoman Dana Perino said amid much laughter.

For Prof. Panarin, Ms. Perino's response was significant. "The way the answer was phrased was an indication that my views are being listened to very carefully," he says.

The professor says he's convinced that people are taking his theory more seriously. People like him have forecast similar cataclysms before, he says, and been right. He cites French political scientist Emmanuel Todd. Mr. Todd is famous for having rightly forecast the demise of the Soviet Union -- 15 years beforehand. "When he forecast the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1976, people laughed at him," says Prof. Panarin.
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source: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123051100709638419.html

An interesting read, and a great topic of debate.

This is a WALL STREET article.

#1 Dan, Feb 25, 2009
ghostsxy Well-Known Member

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he must be pulling these numbers out of his ass or something

#2 ghostsxy, Feb 25, 2009
Dan 8-D

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ghostsxy said: ↑

he must be pulling these numbers out of his ass or something
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The odd thing is, he also predicted that 3 out of 5 major US banks will fail, and they did.

This is even before Bush was in power apparently...

#3 Dan, Feb 25, 2009
AC0110 Let the Fun Begin

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Russia must be really retarded if they think they can take back Alaska.. and other shit like that...

#4 AC0110, Feb 25, 2009
master_g .

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Maybe we gona get a new world order

#5 master_g, Feb 25, 2009
EvilTofu 吃|✿|0(｡◕‿◕｡)0|✿|吃

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If he and others can make money off these predictions, I think we can all write a book about the end of the world and make a quick buck, and I'll also predict that alaska will go to Canada b4 it goes to Russia.

#6 EvilTofu, Feb 25, 2009
Dan 8-D

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eviltofu said: ↑

If he and others can make money off these predictions, I think we can all write a book about the end of the world and make a quick buck, and I'll also predict that alaska will go to Canada b4 it goes to Russia.
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according to his plans, Canada already got a HUGE chunk..... aside from inheriting a Trillion dollar debt buy taking ownership of the Auto Big 3, we get to be the biggest country =D

#7 Dan, Feb 25, 2009
uryu Well-Known Member

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if thats actually does happen, we can deem that bush wasn't the worst president of all time.. haha obama

#8 uryu, Feb 26, 2009
lala_bel_tempo Well-Known Member

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^ lol

#9 lala_bel_tempo, Feb 26, 2009
DKNY Well-Known Member

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wow, this prediction is way off. if it's 200 years later then i might believe, but 2010? come on... Did that guy predict it by reading the American history book, about how America united as one? Now he is just doing the reverse of the book.

#10 DKNY, Feb 26, 2009
Dan 8-D

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uryu said: ↑

if thats actually does happen, we can deem that bush wasn't the worst president of all time.. haha obama
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keep in mind, Obama inherited the 1 Trillion dollar debt from Bush. If you were a member of some team, and the leader of that team failed so hard, to the point of near impossible recovery, he quit the team, making you leader of the team, would that make it your fault for the team's failure?

DKNY said: ↑

wow, this prediction is way off. if it's 200 years later then i might believe, but 2010? come on... Did that guy predict it by reading the American history book, about how America united as one? Now he is just doing the reverse of the book.
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you gotta keep in mind that it's not all about info coming out of his ass. sometimes, these people play psychological warfare with the rest of us.

and if you want precision, he predicted back in 1998 before any signs of trouble, while clinton was still in office, that around now, 3/5 major banks of US will fail, and they did.

#11 Dan, Feb 26, 2009
Akki ...

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i highly doubt this would be likely..... if anything the southern states will not be ruled by mexico..... americans have too much pride.

#12 Akki, Feb 26, 2009
icecamo Member

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if this really happens it will be messed up

#13 icecamo, Feb 27, 2009
Aoes Well-Known Member

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O FCK THAT!! as a future resident of the Californian Republic, I would gladly trade u Canadians, Utah for Colorado!

ffs... WHY do you guys get Colorado? u all ready have enuff snow!... take Utah!

#14 Aoes, Feb 27, 2009
blkperc Well-Known Member

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sounds similar to the case where a korean guy got thrown in jail for predicting the fall of the korean economy.
crazyyyy ppl!

#15 blkperc, Feb 27, 2009
Dan 8-D

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Aoes said: ↑

O FCK THAT!! as a future resident of the Californian Republic, I would gladly trade u Canadians, Utah for Colorado!

ffs... WHY do you guys get Colorado? u all ready have enuff snow!... take Utah!
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lol gladly.

now that colorado is in the middle of canadian territory, and since canada = super strong, we will invade colorado, and take colorado, while also owning utah.

+1 state for canada!

#16 Dan, Feb 27, 2009
Aoes Well-Known Member

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^lol are u stupid? Utah's in the same situation... Nevada is home of our national z0mgWTFBBQ Army... they'll send in their flying saucers and drop a dark matter bomb on j00!!!

#17 Aoes, Feb 27, 2009
Dan 8-D

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Aoes said: ↑

^lol are u stupid? Utah's in the same situation... Nevada is home of our national z0mgWTFBBQ Army... they'll send in their flying saucers and drop a dark matter bomb on j00!!!
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lol you're welcome to try, since the other 3/4 of the remainder of the UNITED states will probably rush you zergling style.... plus canada, plus EU, plus mexico plus japan, plus russia

and japan will probably come up with some fucking anti matter or whatever bomb lol

#18 Dan, Feb 27, 2009
Aoes Well-Known Member

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^This means war CANADA!!! We're gonna skin all ur beavers and take KK away!

#19 Aoes, Feb 27, 2009
Dan 8-D

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Aoes said: ↑

^This means war CANADA!!! We're gonna skin all ur beavers and take KK away!
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LOL GOOD LUCK with under a quarter of your nation, and canada being beefed up with another quarter of your former nation.

#20 Dan, Feb 27, 2009

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