No, I didn't contradict myself .. I was actually referring to your wikileak article. I meant to say that there are a lot of information online and not everything you read or see is true these days. You gotta be able to tell which are facts and fictions (not if you don't have a good enough background). Anyway, we can go on forever with this; there's nothing to convince me that China is neutral.
IMHO, China is not worried about a heavy US military presence after a possible collapse of the DPRK. In fact, if the DPRK did collapse and Korean reunification took place, China would be the happiest of all, because the US would be forced to leave. Koreans are probably one of the most nationalistic people on the planet. It is only through gritted tooth necessity that they require the Korean US political trip wire on their soil. If it wasn't for their fear of the DPRK, the ROK's people would have thrown the US out years ago. Thus, the idea that the US would somehow gain a military edge in the region post South Korean controlled reunification is a non starter. If anything, it would actually weaken US military posture in the Pac Rim. Note: What is the Korean US Political Tripwire? The ROK government understands that any US president or politician would never survive in office if they did nothing while 30,000 American troops were killed. The US public would want revenge for the death of so many of its soldiers; demanding its politicians to act by attacking North Korea. This political aspect, is the ONLY reason why the ROK continues to allow US troops to remain. But, once the threat of possible North Korean aggression is eliminated (eg like through a southern controlled pan Korean reunification) then so too would the need to allow US troops to be stationed there. China's posture toward the DPRK today is one of containment. It does not want Korean refugees or immigrants, and its greatest fear is an open military conflict on the peninsula would drive millions of starving Koreans from the north into its territory. There are already more than 2 million Koreans, or people of Korean descent living in China (mostly within its northeast) and it is starkly aware of the dilution in political influence. Much like how China is fostering the immigration of millions of Han Chinese into Tibet (to absorb that former nation through a process of cultural assimilation), it understands when the shoe is on the other foot. If enough Koreans are allowed into Chinese territory, then that region would de facto, become a part of Korea regardless of political borders. Thus, China is acutely wary of allowing any further Korean cultural or ethnic influence within its borders. In fact, even babies born on Chinese soil, of Chinese men with North Korean illegal immigrant women are not considered Chinese citizens but are 'returned' to North Korea. The general fear again is that too much Korean based influence would divide the loyalties of the populace in favor of Korea. Thus, China would say and do things to keep the situation stable for its own interests and not because it was "backing" a communist brethren. Of course, the DPRK knows this. They're also using Chinese fears against them, in getting concessions in continued streams of food and supplies. This is what keeps the current regime in power. If a war started between the US backed ROK and the DPRK, the first thing that the PRC would likely do is immediately close its borders with the DPRK.
I agreed that the flood of Korean over the Chinese border is a prob and that Koreans are very nationalistic. However, even after reunification, Koreans have no plan on kicking the US military off the peninsula .. perhaps lessen its occupation (30K down to 15-20K) .. WHY? China .. still is a concern. Look at Japan .. they tried to kill US off or even move .. nothing works. Anyhow, the relationship between China and NK is complicated and not like it appeared in public. A lot of stuffs are going behind the scene I bet and not even media has a clue. NK has changed and came a long way from garbage dump so someone somewhere certainly feeding them .. lol
The idea of MAD (Mutually Assured Destruction) is what kept the world sane for many years through the cold war. The premise, of course, was that both sides had everything to lose, and it was this loss of everything, that kept each side's finger off that launch button. But with the DPRK, the problem is, it doesn't have anything to lose while the ROK has. This is the dilemma that the DPRK knows the south is faced with. The south is reluctant to go to war because it would destroy a nation that took a half century of progress to build, while the north is essentially still living in the 1950's. How then, can you make the north's potential loss something that they too, would find 'unacceptable'? Well, you need to target their leader, Kim Jong Il. This is basically the same scenario that eventually got the last of the Duvaliers to quit Haiti. He was made an offer that he couldn't refuse; either live the rest of your days out in private luxury, or die. Given the two options, most self serving despots (which is really what Kim is, after all; I mean, do you really think he genuinely believes in communism? LOL...) generally jump at the former. So, the problem has never been really with the north, but had always been with the man that controls it. Take care of him and the rest of the problem will resolve itself. Just make it clear to him that the party is over, that he now needs to leave. He can go with a gift bag of goodies in hand, or else leave in a box. Either way, he will go. Simple: ROK announces that Kim Jong Il and family, must quit the DPRK in one year. Thereafter, he and his family will be dead, no matter where or when, even if it takes the entirety of South Korea and years of war and destruction to both sides to do it. In other words, he will now have something to lose.
seriously? you want to see many soldiers dying and 2 countries being destroyed? if you meant like a game of soccer or starcraft then that would work lol looks like more stuff are happening http://www.cnn.com/2010/WORLD/asiapcf/12/19/north.korea.tensions/index.html?hpt=T1
If that works for them but Soccer: SK will own NK Starcraft: Like, it's so obvious It's just that with so many years of tension and SK is going to have live fire going on soon. Things don't looks so good and the U.S is almost trying to start something.
At this point, yeah .. EVILtofu .. I kinda hope the SK and NK will go into war and get it over with .. all these random attacks only lead towards that route anyway .. let's get it on .. at this pace, I highly doubt Korea will be like Germany thing .. reunite .. lol
you guys wish for war? seriously? i know it's inevitable at the pace their going, but to wish war any conflicts in the world will inevitably involve the rest of the world, economically speaking, and we don't need more strain on economy than we currently have. family members have been laid off, no income, higher taxes, war isn't what we need at the moment. as a member of a family whose financially unstable due to this economy, i'm praying that they delay this conflict for as long as possible, until this retarded economy gets fixed. moreover, america had a purpose in fighting in middle-east (albeit a wrong purpose) and that is to gain ownership of the oil. what resources does N.korea have that are beneficial to america? it's not as if america is the great savior who will rid the world of communism. logically speaking america has nothing to gain from getting involved with N.K. That's why it never made a move to further escalate conflicts with N.K. But if S.K and N.K. go to war, it will inevitably involve the rest of the world.
It seems someone managed to diffuse this situation a bit, but just enough to convince the erratic and senseless minds at the North Korean regime to back down from the threat of retaliation (in response to the recent military drills by South Korea). Quite some time ago the UN Security Council resolutions had limited North Korea's trade to bare essentials (just enough to prevent the people starving)... after which the North threw a fit and expelled every UN nuclear inspectors in 2009. It seems the North is willing to let them back in. http://www.voanews.com/english/news...w-Return-of-Nuclear-Inspectors-112196124.html The next decade is gonna be interesting (when Kim Jong-il is expected to become deceased). Happy New Year? My thoughts exactly. Also... bored sensationalists, seeing all the oddly placed "lol" and strangely hopeful speculations for war in the posts.
NK's talk is nothing .. I bet they would fire again to get attention .. as if SK scares to go into war with them .. like Ralph said .. SK has much to lose if war occurs. We just can't continue to pacify them .. negotiation has been going on for .. gee .. I can't even remember how long now. If a war is meant to be, then might as well get it over with. I certainly like things to get resolved in a civilize and non-violent manner but thus far, it ain't working. SK ppl have been killed .. how many now? the submarine and the island .. what surprised me is that Kim Jong has been in power for so long and yet NO one has tried to replace him ..
There will be no war as long as Kim Jong Il is still dictator... Believe it or not, the guy is pretty rational... He knows he won't win this war... He's acting out to get the rest of the world to engage talks with him as if they're pleading to do so... He's trying to win concessions... The only way Kim Jong Il will engage in war is if, as Ralph said, he's gonna die... that's it... he's just in power for the sake of being in power... SK's military exercise won't force his hand at all unless they aim at Pyongyang...
There is a lot of speculations about China keeping North Korea as a shield. If a all out war was loose, North Korea is China's shield against the U.S. Navy.
I understand that some may subscribe to such views, but I respectfully disagree with it. While nostalgic and reminiscent of the 1950's, this view is hopelessly outdated in contemporary geopolitical military strategy. The PRC clearly recognizes that US Tomahawk Cruise missiles (used extensively in both Gulf1 and Gulf2, with a range of a suspected 3000 Kilometers and a demonstrated combat tested effectiveness of over 90%), can easily reach deep into the southern half of China even from the Bay of Bengal (ie Indian Ocean). The Trident2 sea launched nuclear ballistic missile has a known range of over three times that, effectively being able to launch from the Indian Ocean, fly over China, and strike Russian Siberia. It is for this exact reason that the US government, in the summer of 2010, purposely revealed the locations of three of its eighteen known Ohio Class submarines. The US did this (Ohio's usually operate in total secrecy and resupply only while at sea, never returning to port) as a deterrent signal to the PRC; all three were "spotted" in locations that were within easy striking distance of China's heartland (in Korean, Japanese, and Indian waters). The Chinese understand that there are probably several other Ohio Class boats in the region that never bothered to reveal themselves. Thus, the existence of the DPRK (or not) insofar as US naval strategy vis a vis the PRC, becomes moot. ***Sidebar*** I know many here talk about war from the perspective of guns and ammo, and often refer to it in terms of modern confrontational net adjuncts (like starcraft, LOL). But the reality of war is logistics; not just for the military, but also for the general populace. When the US was about to attack the DPRK in 1994, people in the ROK did something very predictable; they began to horde food, most notably in the form of dry instant noodles. For a short time, instant noodles could not be found anywhere in Seoul as everyone was literally sold out. Consider that the average DPRK diet is already well known to be less than half of what is considered minimum daily requirement, what would happen in North Korea should there be a war? Insofar as caloric requirements for basketball, football, or other physically invested pursuits; most people understand that if you don't eat well, you cannot be expected to perform well or effectively. This concept is exactly the same in the battle arena, where soldiers are known to consume up to three times the "normal" recommended daily caloric intake. The question then becomes, how much caloric reserves does the DPRK have to fight a war? I personally believe that the DPRK doesn't have enough food reserves to last more than 2 or 3 weeks at best. If one also understands that the first ROK or US strikes would also target DPRK food storage and transport facilities, then I suspect that after a very short time, there will be food riots, cannibalism, wholesale defections of entire military units, and a massed exodus of refugees into China and across battle lines to the south. The DPRK would likely collapse in less than a month. For those that are interested in combat troops and calories management see this link: http://www.mreinfo.com/us/fsr/first-strike-ration.html
